The Overnight News Roundup

Jan 29, 2025

PiQ and Zack Eiseman provide you with a consolidated roundup of the overnight news that matters most to markets.

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The White House is offering to pay federal workers who don't want to return to the office through Sept. 30, as long as they resign by Feb. 6. 5-10% of federal employees are expected to accept the offer, potentially meaning hundreds of thousands of people. (Axios)
A U.S. judge temporarily paused part of the Trump administration's sweeping directive to pause federal loans, grants and other financial assistance. (RTRS)
U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy signed an order directing U.S. regulators to rescind landmark fuel economy standards issued under President Joe Biden that aim to drastically reduce fuel use for cars and trucks. (RTRS)
The Trump administration pulled back from its order to pause nearly all foreign aid, and will now exempt “core life saving programs” that involve medicine, medical services, food and shelter. (WSJ)
Howard Lutnick has spent the week since Trump’s inauguration positioning himself as one of the advisers in the president’s ear arguing in favor of maximalist pressure on allies and foes alike. (WSJ)
Former US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said Trump is “deadly serious” about using tariffs throughout his second term to squeeze concessions from allies, but doesn’t think he’ll ultimately take a blanket approach. (BBG)
Bloomberg article "Bets on Bigger Treasuries Rally Are Booming Before Fed Decision" highlights growing open interest in T-Note futures amid the rally since Monday, in addition to chunky bullish option wagers prospering. (BBG)
AUD weakened and Feb RBA rate cut bets grew after Australian inflation remained in retreat in Q4, coming in beneath expectations.
RBNZ Chief Economist Conway said the official interest rate will move towards a lower, neutral level in the absence of future shocks to the system, as pandemic-related disruptions abate and inflation subsides. (RTRS)
New Zealand Finance Minister Willis said this year’s budget will seek to remove barriers to economic growth as she targets an earlier return to surplus than is currently forecast. Budget 2025, to be delivered May 22. (BBG)
BoJ December meeting minutes (where it left rates unchanged) showed members discussed how to use estimates on the economy's neutral interest rate to determine further hikes in borrowing costs. (RTRS)
Tokyo’s stock exchange is to unveil major new protections for minority investors, as corporate Japan faces surging interest from global private equity firms and a record-breaking wave of management buyouts. (FT)
Traders are betting the ECB will have to adopt a more aggressive approach to cutting interest rates as the risk of US tariffs and political turmoil in the region weighs on the bloc’s economy. (BBG)
UK Chancellor Reeves in a speech on Wednesday will pledge to go “further and faster” to boost the UK economy by unblocking new infrastructure projects. (BBG)
UK ministers are drawing up plans to subsidise electric car purchases by guaranteeing consumer loans. (FT)
The head of the Czech National Bank wants to plough billions of euros’ worth of the country’s reserves into bitcoin (as high as 5% of its 140bln Euros of reserves), a groundbreaking move that could make it the first western central bank known to hold crypto assets. (FT)

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GEOPOLITICAL:

The EU is proposing a phased ban on imports of Russian aluminum. The package also proposes sanctions that would cut about 15 banks off from the SWIFT banking system, and actions targeting more than 70 dark-fleet vessels involved in shipping Russian oil. (BBG)
U.S. President Trump will pursue the complete denuclearization of North Korea, according to a White House spokesperson. (Yonhap)
Apple has been secretly working with SpaceX to add support for Starlink in the latest iPhone software. (BBG)Big majority of Greenlanders do not want to be part of US, poll finds. (FT)
The Chairman of the Russian State Duma Volodin urged an investigation into Tucker Carlson's claim that the Biden administration attempted to assassinate the Russian president. If true, it could mean "a direct path to starting a nuclear war," he added. (Sputnik)
Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said in a Fox News interview that Ukraine needed broader security guarantees and Russian President Vladimir Putin was not afraid of Europe, urging U.S. President Trump to be on Ukraine's side. (RTRS)
Russian air defence systems destroyed a Ukrainian drone attempting to attack a nuclear power facility in Russia's Smolensk region, the governor of the western Russia region said. (RTRS)

EQUITIES:

Microsoft and OpenAI are investigating whether data output from OpenAI’s technology was obtained in an unauthorized manner by a group linked to Chinese AI startup DeepSeek. (BBG)
OpenAI said to the FT it has found evidence that DeepSeek used the US company’s proprietary models to train its own open-source competitor. (FT)
OpenAI said in a statement Chinese companies are "constantly" trying to distill U.S. AI models and that it engages in "countermeasures" to protect its intellectual property, adding that it will work with the U.S. government to safeguard U.S. technology. (RTRS)
Steve Cohen said at a conference that the rapid emergence of China’s DeepSeek is “bullish” for the sector as " it advances the move to artificial super intelligence", blaming Monday’s tumble in tech shares on misinformation. (FT)
ASML reported much better than expected fourth-quarter bookings on strong demand for its most advanced tools, which are used to make chips used in artificial intelligence. (RTRS)
Starbucks reported a smaller-than-expected fall in first-quarter comparable sales, in early signs of the struggling coffee chain benefiting from CEO Brian Niccol's efforts to revive demand. (RTRS)
Hewlett Packard Enterprise met with Donald Trump’s antitrust enforcers on Tuesday over its $14 billion bid to buy Juniper Networks. (BBG)
F5 forecast second-quarter revenue above estimates and beat first-quarter revenue estimates, anticipating stable demand for its cloud services, sending its shares surging in extended trading. (RTRS)