The Overnight News Roundup

Mar 03, 2025

PiQ and Zack Eiseman provide you with a consolidated roundup of the overnight news that matters most to markets.

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MACRO:

Crypto prices surged Sunday after President Trump said he would move forward on a U.S. crypto strategic reserve that will include bitcoin and ether, as well as solana, XRP, and cardano. (WSJ)
Trump will impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada on Tuesday but is still deciding on the levels, commerce secretary Howard Lutnick said. Trump has also vowed to impose additional 10 per cent tariffs on China on Tuesday, which is “set”, Lutnick said. Those tariffs come on top of 10 per cent tariffs he already imposed this month. (Fox via FT)
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Sunday that Trump’s proposed tariffs for Tuesday are unlikely to raise inflation, in part because China will “eat any tariffs that go on.” Said Mexico has offered to match the U.S.′ tariffs on China, and urged Canada to follow Mexico’s lead, though he said the country hasn’t offered to do so yet. (CNBC)
A White House official announced on Saturday that China, Canada and Mexico could take quick action to avert fentanyl-related tariffs. (Newsquawk)
A White House official announced on Saturday that Trump ordered to bolster the supply of forest resources and directed the Commerce Secretary to investigate harm to US National Security from imported lumber. (Newsquawk)
China is studying countermeasures in response to the U.S. tariff threat on March 4, according to the Global Times. These countermeasures are expected to include both tariffs and non-tariff measures, with U.S. agricultural and food products likely to be targeted. (Global Times)
Trump posted on Truth "We should spend less time worrying about Putin, and more time worrying about migrant rape gangs, drug lords, murderers, and people from mental institutions entering our Country - So that we don’t end up like Europe!". (Truth)
A growing group of investors are betting against the greenback amid signs the US economy is cooling and on concern a trade war will weaken it further. (BBG)
Trump has signed more than 75 executive orders to start his second term, significantly more than any other president in recent history and the 12 he signed at the start of his first term, spurring about 100 lawsuits so far. For now, most of the orders have survived. (WSJ)
Executives at some of the biggest U.S. consulting firms are meeting with Trump administration officials to defend their projects ahead of this coming week’s deadline for government agencies to justify major consulting contracts. (WSJ)
Two consumer polls (CBS News/YouGov and CNN) signalled that Trump is focusing too much on trade rather than the economy and inflation, which are key worries for the public. (BBG)
Republicans are worried the same economic factors that helped Trump win the election, where he made high costs a centrepiece of his campaign, could come back to bite him if inflation remains stubborn. (WSJ)
Trump's tariffs are seeing defensive stock sectors such as consumer staples and healthcare outperform. Investors are shifting their holdings to brace for tariffs, with some adding exposure to industrials and materials, while others are reducing their exposure to international stocks and small-cap stocks. (WSJ)
Due to pressure from the Trump administration, the Mexican drug cartels haven't felt this much stress in years, with leaders going into hiding and shutting down fentanyl labs. (NYT)
European defense stocks surged in early trading on Tradegate, while futures for the Euro Stoxx 50 also gained ground, after the region’s leaders met to offer Ukraine their support amid concerns of a US pullback. (BBG)
The EU is to extend its relaxed subsidy regime for energy. (FT)
Germany's CDU & SPD are contemplating two special funds for 1/ defence and 2/ infrastructure via outgoing Bundestag. Could get to just below €1 trillion. (Eurasia Group's @Mij_Europe)
Portugal’s government bond rating was raised by S&P as deleveraging improves the country’s external position. (BBG)
UK Chancellor Reeves is preparing to cut back her spending plans and demand the public sector improves its woeful levels of productivity, as she tries to repair a hole in the government’s finances. (BBG)
The SNB will only reintroduce negative interest rates if necessary, President Martin Schlegel said in a media interview published Saturday, but stressed that all options are on the table. (BBG)
Switzerland’s national benchmark for mortgage costs dropped to the level it had before the global inflation surge. (BBG)
China’s factory activity returned to expansion in February, according to the official survey, a sign of resilience in an economy hit by higher US tariffs and suffering from weak domestic demand. (BBG)
The China Caixin manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8 in February from 50.1 in January, the fifth consecutive month that the index stayed above 50, according to data released Monday by Caixin Media Co. and S&P Global. (WSJ)
The PBoC said it will help keep financing costs in check for private companies, in the latest move by the nation to give the sector a freer hand, according to the governor cited by Yicai. (BBG)
Goldman Sachs and BofA Securities rolled back some of their bearish forecasts for the yuan on the heels of fresh threats from Trump. (BBG)
China’s foreign exchange regulator has surveyed companies about the potential impact of US-China tariffs. (BBG)
Major Chinese state media all ran an article about President Xi Jinping’s supportive stance and remarks on the country’s private sector in recent years, as policymakers seek to boost confidence in the country’s economy amid growing geopolitical tensions with the US. (@C_Barraud)
China should ramp up counter-cyclical fiscal policies to stimulate domestic consumption, while also taking measures to stabilize its stocks market and promote new growth drivers for the economy, according to experts cited in Chinese press. (CSJ)
China’s top political advisory body will consider a proposal to lower the country’s marriage age to help reverse falling birth rates this week, as more than 5,000 delegates gather in Beijing for the country’s annual parliamentary meeting. (FT)
China could reestablish import controls on coal, after leading industry groups warned on mounting oversupply in the world’s biggest market for the fuel. (BBG)
China’s LNG imports fell to a five-year low last month on weak demand and higher European prices luring cargoes there. (BBG)
Japan's Ministry of Finance official Mimura stated that not only large firms but also small and medium-sized businesses are reporting strong prospects for wage increases. (Newswires)
Australian house prices rebounded last month as buyers jumped into the market in anticipation of the first interest-rate cut in more than four years which the Reserve Bank then delivered two weeks ago. (BBG)
Australia’s east coast is bracing for tidal surges, intense rainfall, strong winds and flooding as a cyclone is expected to veer toward Brisbane. (BBG)
New Zealand exports outpaced imports in the final three months of last year amid a surge in meat shipments, adding to signs of a recovery from recession. (BBG)
Argentine President Javier Milei said he will seek congressional support for a new program his government is negotiating with the International Monetary Fund, the most concrete sign yet that talks are advancing toward final stages. (BBG)
Turkish annual inflation dipped below 40% in February ahead of an anticipated interest-rate cut this week. (BBG)
South Africa’s biggest political party plans a 0.75 percentage-point increase in VAT in a revised national budget this month, warning it will approach groups outside the ruling coalition if those in it don’t back the move. (Sunday Times)
Iraq invited international oil companies operating in the country’s Kurdish region for a meeting next week to help resume flows halted for about two years. (BBG)

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GEOPOLITICAL:

The UK and France are to lead a desperate European attempt to salvage peace hopes in Ukraine, with a plan to end the war that would include an initial one-month truce with Russia, covering air, sea and infrastructure. (FT)
A former spy and close friend of Vladimir Putin has been engineering a restart of Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Europe with the backing of US investors, a once unthinkable move that shows the breadth of Donald Trump’s rapprochement with Moscow. (FT)
The US has suspended operations and planning for offensive cyber operations against Russia, a senior US official told CNN. (CNN)
Israel on Sunday said it was stopping any entry of goods into the Gaza Strip after a 42-day cease-fire expired a day earlier without any agreement between the two sides on what comes next. (WSJ)
Norway needs to avoid revisiting the issue of a potential European Union membership at a time of growing geopolitical tensions, the prime minister says. (BBG)
The Philippines faces an “existential threat” in the South China Sea amid Manila’s lingering tensions with Beijing, according to its top envoy to Washington. (BBG)
China’s ambassador to Australia has warned that a decision to ban AI app DeepSeek from government systems and devices risks further politicizing trade and technology ties between the two countries. (BBG)

EQUITIES:

Tesla has been added to Morgan Stanley's Top Pick in US autos, noting it has >50% upside to its $430 price target. Bull case $800. Said FY25 deliveries could potentially decline Y/Y, creating an attractive entry point to its preferred embodied AI name. (Newswires)
Chinese buyers are bypassing U.S. export controls by ordering Nvidia's latest AI chips through third-party traders in nearby regions, with some sellers offering delivery within six weeks. (WSJ)
Singapore has charged three men in a case suspected to involve Nvidia semiconductor sales that potentially breach US export controls, the government announced on Monday. (FT)
Former Intel Chair and CEO Craig Barrett said in an Op-Ed not to tear Intel apart, “In my opinion, a far better move might be to fire the Intel board and rehire Pat Gelsinger to finish the job he has aptly handled over the past few years.” (Fortune)
Allegro Microsystems is drawing takeover interest from larger competitor ON Semiconductor. (BBG)
Chubb is nearing a deal to acquire Liberty Mutual Holding's businesses in Thailand and Vietnam as it seeks to boost its presence in Southeast Asia. (BBG)
TSMC’s CoWoS advanced semiconductor packaging has not suffered order cuts, as has been widely rumoured, according to supply chain sources, who called the rumours a ‘misunderstanding.’ CoWoS remains in short supply, and any indication of change may have been a shift to new technology, or the beginning of FOPLP work. (UDN via @dnystedt)
TSMC's CoWoS expansion plan remains unchanged (gradually increasing quarter by quarter, targeting approximately 70,000 wafers per month in December 2025). (@mingchikuo)
TSMC will begin mass production of A16 process technology in the 2nd half of 2026 in Taiwan, and will introduce the node to its 3rd Arizona fab in 2028, when it opens. It is believed TSMC is trying to work with the US government by pushing the technology schedule forward. (UDN via @dnystedt)
Foxconn will be the sole contract manufacturer for AI servers for the US$500 billion Stargate Project. Foxconn is said to have greatly increased US manufacturing capacity for the orders, mainly in the state of Texas. (UDN via @dnystedt)
Shell is exploring a potential sale of its chemicals assets in Europe and the U.S., part of a continuing drive to refocus the company’s business on its most profitable operations. (WSJ)
Airbus saw an improvement in its February aircraft deliveries, reaching between 35-39 jetliners (vs 25 in January). (BBG)
UK's HMRC will end its 10yr contract with Barclays, awarding a GBP 99mln deal to Lloyds instead; it follows environmental campaigns against Barclays over fossil fuel financing. (Newsquawk)
Prada is moving closer to a deal to buy Versace from Capri Holdings after agreeing to a price of nearly €1.5 billion ($1.6 billion). (BBG)
Chinese bubble tea giant Mixue’s shares surged 40% on their debut on Monday as Hong Kong’s biggest listing of the year to date highlighted investor focus on mainland China’s price-conscious consumers. (FT)