The Overnight News Roundup
PiQ and Zack Eiseman provide you a consolidated roundup of the overnight news that matters most to markets.
TRUMP:
Bitcoin breaks $81,000 as Trump's election turbocharges cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, the small caps Russel 2k index is outperforming amid pro-growth prospects under the new administration despite higher yields.
Some Republican strategists say Trump likely will start to fulfill his tariff pledge by focusing on China’s failure to fully comply with Phase One. The U.S. is entitled to raise tariffs on China for noncompliance under the deal. (WSJ)
House Republicans move forward on revoking China’s trade status by preparing legislation. (Punchbowl)
The world prepares for sweeping Trump tariffs, although there is hope that senior economic officials will moderate Trump’s ambitions on this front while legal obstacles would prevent unilateral levies on all imports. (WaPo)
Trump “is fully willing to implement the tariffs. And he is fully willing to cut a [trade] deal if he thinks a deal is better for the interests of the United States” said Clete Willems, who served as a top White House international economics aide in Trump’s first term. (WaPo)
Trump demanded that the next Republican leader of the Senate agree to allow him to push through at least some nominees without requiring a vote, a move that would give more power to the White House to get around congressional opposition. (WSJ)
In response to a social media post from Sen. Mike Lee, which called for the Fed to be under the direction of the president, Musk on Friday posted the “100” emoji used to convey agreement. (CNBC)
Fed Chair Powell had prepared a legal defence back in 2018 to prevent Trump from removing him from Fed Chair, something he will likely do again if Trump attempts to remove him. Some Trump advisors are pushing for a direct conflict with Powell. (WSJ)
Elon Musk will prefer not to hold a formal position in the Trump administration, focusing on his business projects instead, who believes his current influence on Trump is already enough for him. (CNN)
Scott Bessent, considered a lead candidate to become Treasury Secretary, held “very positive” meetings with Trump on Friday. (RTRS)
Former USTR Lighthizer sources deny reports that he has been asked by Trump to return to the agency overseeing trade policy. (RTRS/Politico)
Trump named Tom Homan to oversee a planned mass deportation effort, describing it on social media as “in charge of all Deportation of Illegal Aliens back to their Country of Origin.” (WSJ)
Trump advisors are preparing plans to carry out his mass deportation pledge and could make an emergency declaration to utilize military assets to complete the job. (WSJ)
Steven Mnuchin said he will not seek to join the new administration but is ready to offer advice, including on how to strengthen sanctions on Iran and Russia and contain the growth of U.S. debt. (RTRS)
North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum could become Trump’s “energy tsar” with a focus on slashing industry regulations. (FT)
Richard Farley, an NYC leverage buyout attorney, could become head of the SEC. (NY Post)
Former US Commerce Sec Wilbur Ross said Trump will follow through on his plans to hit imports with tariffs but is likely to carve out exemptions for sectors such as Canadian oil and gas. (BBG)
US oil executives are eagerly awaiting Donald Trump’s expected rollback of environmental regulations, but despite the president’s pledge to “drill, baby, drill”, production is unlikely to increase significantly during his second term in office. (FT)
Trump win puts global corporate tax deal ‘in peril’. (FT)
MACRO:
Fed's Kashkari said that while the current expectation is for another quarter point cut at the Fed's December meeting, "we need to see what the data actually look like" before deciding, adding that they need to have confidence inflation is going all the way down to 2%. (RTRS)
Fed's Kashkari said widespread deportation of foreign-born workers would probably cause some disruption to businesses but the impact on inflation and the broad economy would depend on the details. (RTRS)
US inflation probably moved sideways at best in October, highlighting the uneven path of easing price pressures in the home stretch toward the Federal Reserve’s target with the CPI release due on Wednesday. (BBG)
Firms like BlackRock Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and TCW Group Inc. have issued a steady drumbeat of warnings that the bumpy ride in the bond market is likely far from over. (BBG)
RBC BlueBay Asset Management says “We don’t just look for a very shortlived overshoot on inflation [due to Trump’s policies], this could be more structural and protracted,” although there are some who question whether the move higher in inflation breakevens are overdone. (FT)
Chinese stocks, industrial metals, and the yuan saw further depreciation on Monday after soft CPI data and in further fallout from Friday's NPC announcement, not to mention the impending Trump administration.
China is considering plans to shower American allies in Europe and Asia with tariff cuts, visa exemptions, Chinese investments, and other incentives in efforts to woo US allies to buy time and leverage in its competition with the US. (WSJ)
China's consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in four months in October while producer price deflation deepened. (RTRS)
Analysts say China's local debt package will likely do little to boost economic activity, demand and prices in the near term. (RTRS)
Foreign companies pulled more money from China last quarter, according to Chinese SAFE data, which conversely showed outbound investment from China has been rising sharply. (BBG)
China’s trade surplus is on track to hit a fresh record this year, increasingly leaving it on a collision course with some of the world’s biggest economies. (BBG)
Japan’s PM Ishiba won a runoff vote to stay in the job despite a national election setback, as he prepares for an expected meeting with US President-elect Donald Trump later this month. (BBG)
BoJ Summary of Opinions showed policymakers were divided on how soon they could raise interest rates with some warning of the risk of renewed market volatility after the U.S. presidential election. (RTRS)
Japan's "economy watchers" survey showed service-sector sentiment worsened and bankruptcy cases rose in October, casting doubt on the central bank's view the country was on track to meet its 2% inflation target driven by robust domestic demand. (RTRS)
Hedge funds turned the most negative on the yen since August in the run up to the US presidential election last week, suggesting many were positioned for a Donald Trump victory. (BBG)
Japanese investors bought the largest amount of German sovereign debt since 2018 in September, while continuing to shift away from French bonds amid concern over the nation’s finances. (BBG)
Australia Treasurer Chalmers said Monday the country will not be immune from repercussions of Trump trade policies if they trigger a trade war. (RTRS)
RBNZ survey showed New Zealand's inflation expectations remained subdued in Q4, cementing expectations the central bank will deliver a third straight interest rate cut later this month. (RTRS)
German Chancellor Scholz said Sunday he wouldn't have a problem with a vote of confidence before Christmas, potentially providing a faster route to ending political uncertainty and the budget impasse. (FT)
ECB's Holzmann said as things currently stand, there is no reason for the ECB not to cut rates in December but the decision will be based on the data available then. (Kleine Zeitung)
European Commission President von der Leyen is suggesting that one way to deter Trump tariffs is for Europe to buy more liquefied natural gas (LNG) from America. (Politico)
Fitch raised its outlook on Spain to "positive" from "stable", citing improving structural factors that are likely to bolster the country's GDP growth potential and resilience against external shocks. (RTRS)
SNB Vice Chairman Martin said the central bank has made absolutely no commitment to future interest rate cuts and next rate decision will depend on the assessment in December, saying the Franc is expected to appreciate in nominal terms in the future. (Newsquawk)
UK Chancellor Reeves will set out plans to stimulate growth through the principles of stability, investment and reform, as well as hail the benefits of free trade amid impending US protectionism during her first Mansion House address on Thursday. (FT)
UK public-sector employers in CIPD survey now expect to raise pay faster than their private-sector counterparts for the first time since late 2020, after the new Labour government approved big public-sector pay rises funded in part by higher employer taxes. (RTRS)
UK house price growth will be weaker than previously expected in 2026 as high interest rates and taxes weigh on the market, according to revised forecasts from Hamptons International. (BBG)
UK home sales still below pre-pandemic levels. (FT)
Norway's annual core inflation rate eased in line with market forecasts in October, supporting the central bank's view that the policy interest rate will decline in 2025. (RTRS)
Russia is looking to merge its biggest oil companies into a single national champion, a deal that would tighten Putin’s grip on global energy markets and Russia’s wartime economy, potentially limiting effects of sanctions. (WSJ)
Goldman Sachs strats say while the US bilateral trade deficit with China has decreased somewhat since the Trump administration, deficits with other Asian exporters have risen significantly and may come under increased scrutiny. (CNBC)
Vietnam’s central bank reiterated it’s willing to sell US dollars to keep the dong stable in the local money market and maintain macroeconomic stability. (BBG)
Dogecoin Outperforms Bitcoin as Trump Spurs Crypto Speculation. (BBG)
GEOPOLITICAL:
The Russian military has assembled a force of 50,000 soldiers, including North Korean troops, as it prepares to begin an assault aimed at reclaiming territory seized by Ukraine in the Kursk region of Russia. (NYT)
Ukraine fired an unprecedented number of drones towards Russia’s capital overnight on Saturday into Sunday. (CNN)
The US has ordered TSMC to halt shipments of 7nm or more advanced chips to Chinese customers that are often used in AI applications starting Monday. (RTRS)
Iran enforces rolling power blackouts as fuel shortages bite. (FT)
Qatar said Saturday it has paused its efforts to mediate a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip, citing a failure by Israel and Hamas to make progress in the talks. (WSJ)
Taiwan considers big US defence purchases as overture to Trump. (FT)
China and Indonesia signed deals worth $10 billion at the Indonesia-China Business Forum in Beijing on Sunday, spanning sectors including food, new energy, technology, and biotechnology. (RTRS)
EQUITIES:
Nvidia CEO Huang will hold a 90-minute chat on Wednesday about the future of AI with SoftBank's CEO Masayoshi Son. (Nikkei)
OpenAI’s next flagship model might not represent as big a leap forward as its predecessors. OpenAI has created a foundations team to figure out how the company can continue to improve its models in the face of a dwindling supply of new training data. (The Information)
Citigroup CEO Fraser expects a significant easing in bank regulations under the Trump administration. (BBG)
Booking Holdings expects to cut jobs and implement organizational changes that include seeking real estate savings, modernizing processes and systems and optimizing procurement. (WSJ)
JPMorgan Asset Management has added two US equity income-focused strategies to its range of actively managed exchange traded funds in Europe. (FT)
Trump’s US election victory has dealt a blow to the renewable energy industry, prompting at least half a dozen developers to put projects on hold and investors to dump shares. (FT)
US oil industry eagerly awaits Donald Trump’s deregulatory push. (FT)
Super Micro Computer halted construction of a new factory in Malaysia, prompting Malaysia’s YTL Corp. to transfer orders for Nvidia GB200 NVL72 AI servers to Taiwan’s Wiwynn, marking the first substantial order transferred by a Super Micro client to a Taiwan firm. (UDN)
TSMC may build CoWoS advanced packaging plants in the US and Japan due to persistently strong demand. (CTEE)
ASML experienced a global IT system failure on Nov. 8, impacting factories, offices, customer service, and supply chain communications, where the issue began Friday morning and was fixed by the afternoon. (BBG)
Continental cut its sales guidance for the second time this year, blaming weak demand in Europe and North America, even as it posted third-quarter core profit above expectations. (RTRS)
Burberry set for takeover by Moncler. (Daily Mail)
SIX Group has reached an agreement to acquire London-based Aquis Exchange Plc in a cash offer that puts an enterprise value of 194 million pounds on the deal. (RTRS)
Toyota aims to ramp up China production in a strategy pivot, with local production overhaul aiming to compete better with Chinese EV makers. (RTRS)
Shares in Australia's iron ore miners slumped on Monday after another round of stimulus measures by their top customer China disappointed investors. (RTRS)
Tencent plans to set up its third internet data center in Indonesia, as the Chinese tech giant furthers its partnership with GoTo Group and Alibaba Group to develop cloud infrastructure and train local talent in the country. (WSJ)
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