The Overnight News Roundup - April 11

Apr 11, 2025

PiQ and Zack Eiseman provide you with a consolidated roundup of the overnight news that matters most to markets.

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TRADE:

Many of the trade offers US President Trump is touting are preliminary calls or offers from other nations to negotiate, not fleshed-out economic proposals, according to WSJ sources. The White House was still devising its negotiation strategy Thursday, as the countdown to the July 8th deadline began. (WSJ)
Trump on Thursday threatened Mexico with sanctions and tariffs in a dispute over water sharing between the two countries, accusing Mexico of breaking an 81-year-old treaty and "stealing the water from Texas Farmers." (RTRS)
EU's von der Leyen told the FT the EU could tax big tech if trade talks with the US breakdown, noting the EU was seeking a "completely balanced" agreement with the US in the 90-day pause whilst also suggesting changes to VAT and regulations on digital content were off the table. She warned, “We will never go back any more to the status quo”. (FT)
EU's von der Leyen said she has been receiving calls from many countries for trade deals, "They know that we know how to do good and fair deals... We are known for predictability and reliability." (FT)
French President Macron, on X, said that Trump's decision this week for a pause on tariffs he had imposed on countries gave room for only a 'fragile pause', reaffirming that France and the EU would present a united front in terms of negotiations aimed at reaching a deal and getting the American tariffs removed. (RTRS)
The EU should consider countermeasures to tariffs, including one typically considered a last resort, France's trade minister indicated. (Nikkei)
EU finance ministers will brainstorm on Friday how to use that time to get a trade deal with Washington and how to coordinate their efforts to handle higher tariffs if they do not. (RTRS)
Hungarian PM Orban said Trump will probably reach tariff deals soon with countries around the world, “There will be a new balance, a new situation and this may take one or two months... Once the agreements are sealed, we won’t be talking about a tariff war any more. We’ll be talking about a tariff peace.” (BBG)
EU leaders are planning to travel to Beijing for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in late July. (SCMP)
Chinese President Xi told Spanish PM Sanchez that China was willing to "build a more strategically focused and dynamic comprehensive strategic partnership" during a meeting. Xi said he viewed ties with Spain as adding impetus to China-European Union relations. (Xinhua)
China, Japan and South Korea finance and central bank officials met and discussed the impact of U.S. tariffs on the global and regional macroeconomic situation, China's central bank said on Friday. (RTRS)
China's Commerce Minister Wang Wentao had discussions with his Saudi Arabian and South African counterparts to exchange views on responding to the United States' "reciprocal tariffs", the Chinese ministry said on Friday. (RTRS)
China Semiconductor Industry Association announced that integrated circuit (IC) imports' declared origin needs to be based on “wafer fabrication factory” location, regardless of packaging status, meaning that IC products manufactured in the US and finally assembled in other countries or regions will not be affected by China's latest counter-tariff measures.
Chinese logistics companies are suspected to be helping manufacturers minimize the impact of tariffs through strategies that include undervaluing shipments or disguising their origins. Offering what are known as "double clearance and tax inclusive" services, and have exploded in numbers since Trump's first term. (Nikkei)
Chinese exports of rare-earth minerals are all but on hold as producers grapple with tighter permit requirements following last week’s new restrictions on the critical materials. (BBG)
Japan's Finance Minister said Japan will proactively communicate with the US on foreign exchange based on agreement that excessive currency volatility is negative for the economy. (RTRS)
Mexico wants a greater proportion of each auto built in the country to qualify for US origin status, a move that would lower the impact of Trump's tariff policies. (BBG)
Vietnam’s deputy prime minister held high-level talks in Washington with Treasury Secretary Bessent and Commerce Secretary Lutnick. (BBG)
Vietnam is prepared to crack down on Chinese goods being shipped to the US via its territory and will tighten controls on sensitive exports to China, such as chips. (RTRS)
Thailand will step up a crackdown on the practice of foreign companies circumventing high US tariffs by claiming false certificates of origin as it prepares for negotiations with the Trump administration. (BBG)
Taiwan is to be included in the first batch of trading partners to hold talks with the United States, President Lai Ching-te said on Friday, vowing to be ready for the discussions. (RTRS)
The Philippines won’t cut its holdings of US Treasuries, an official said. (BBG)

MACRO:

Fed's Collins (voter) said that large trade tariffs now being pursued by the Trump administration will almost certainly drive inflation higher and depress growth, at least in the near term. “Maintaining the current monetary policy stance seems appropriate for the time being,” she added. (RTRS)
FT article titled "US consumers warned of higher prices from tariffs within weeks" warns of some US stores preparing to raise prices within two weeks due to tariffs, where research suggests the 10% blanket levy on most imports is seen raising prices 2.9% overall, costing the average household $4,700 each year. (FT)
"Treasuries Suddenly Trade Like Risky Assets in Warning to Trump" - BBG article
Elon Musk said his group was on pace to cut $150 billion from the federal budget in one budget year. That would be a sharp drop from his previous stated goal of $1 trillion, although its unclear if Elon meant that is what has been cut so far or the total they expect to cut this fiscal year. (NYT)
Investors yanked a record $9.6bn from US high-yield bond funds and $6.5bn from leveraged loan funds in the week to Wednesday, according to data provider LSEG Lipper and JPMorgan. (FT)
Goldman Sachs strategists revised higher their default rate forecast for US leveraged loan borrowers by the year-end to 8% from 3.5%, and also raised the rate for US junk bond issuers to 5% from 3%. (BBG)
Democrats on the House Financial Services Committee are urging regulators to investigate potential insider trading and market manipulation stemming from Trump's rapidly shifting tariff policies and the wild swings they've caused in financial markets. (WSJ)
Well-timed options trades ahead of Trump's tariff pause draw questions. (RTRS)
The PBOC lifted its official yuan midpoint guidance fix for the first time in seven days on Friday. (RTRS)
Chinese local governments have implemented a significant number of property easing policies, increasingly utilizing direct purchase subsidies to stimulate the market and lower costs for buyers. (Securities Times)
China's exports likely picked up pace in March, as factories rushed out shipments ahead of Trump's tariffs, a Reuters poll showed ahead of Monday's data, though the broadening trade war with the US has darkened the economic outlook. (RTRS)
Chinese President Xi is to visit Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia from April 14th-18th. (Newsquawk)
Japan’s PM Ishiba created a taskforce to deal with the fallout from US tariffs as pressure mounts to boost aid to households ahead of a summer election. (BBG)
Japan's ruling coalition is considering requesting the government to cut the sales tax rate as part of measures to cushion the economic blow from rising cost of living and U.S. tariffs. (Yomiuri)
The BoJ's decision to scale back its purchases of government bonds is forcing the Ministry of Finance to step up efforts to lure overseas buyers as it attempts to replace a source of annual funding exceeding $10 billion. (BBG)
Japanese households' inflation expectations heightened in the three months to March, a Bank of Japan survey showed on Friday, keeping the central bank under pressure to raise interest rates further. (RTRS)
Japan's core inflation probably accelerated in March from the previous month as rice prices rose, a Reuters poll showed, a sign of persistent cost pressure that is likely to encourage the central bank to proceed with monetary policy normalisation. (RTRS)
ECB Bloomberg survey respondents expect consecutive quarter-point reductions in April and June, before the deposit rate then stays at 2% at least through the end of 2026. (BBG)
Britain's economy grew at a monthly pace of 0.5% in February, well above economists' expectations in a Reuters poll for an expansion of 0.1%. Growth in February was broad-based across services and manufacturing. (RTRS)
UK retail footfall fell in March, dragged by a late Easter and ongoing subdued consumer confidence, according to a BRC report. (WSJ)
The UK labour market weakened again in March with the number of people looking for work rising by the most in more than four years as companies laid off staff and were cautious about hiring, according to a survey published by the REC. (RTRS)
Saudi Arabia's crude oil supply to China will surge in May from the month before as a sharp price cut by the kingdom boosts demand, Reuters sources said. (RTRS)
Surge in coffee prices is testing consumer patience, Lavazza warns. (FT)

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GEOPOLITICS:

US President Trump's diplomatic envoy Steve Witkoff traveled to Russia and is expected to meet President Vladimir Putin on Friday for a third time amid Ukraine ceasefire efforts. (Axios)
Iran is considering proposing during talks with the U.S. that the two countries work on an interim nuclear agreement before pursuing negotiations over a comprehensive deal. (Axios)
The likelihood that Iran will make a decision to build nuclear weapons has increased due to the ongoing military conflicts in the Middle East, according to US sources cited by Sky News Arabia. (Sky News Arabia)

EQUITIES:

Tesla China has suspended Model S and X new orders from its website, the reasoning is unclear although there is speculation on it being a result of tariff policy given those models can can only be imported from the US.
OpenAI has slashed the time and resources it spends on testing the safety of its powerful artificial intelligence models, raising concerns that its technology is being rushed out without sufficient safeguards. (FT)
Google on Thursday laid off hundreds of employees in its platforms and devices unit, which works on Android software, Pixel phones and the Chrome browser. (The Information)
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ordered the termination of IT services contracts, totally valued at $5.1 billion, with companies such as Accenture and Deloitte, a memo showed on Thursday. (RTRS)
Berkshire Hathaway has priced a 6-tranche yen denominated bond totalling 90 billion yen ($626.70 million), according to a term sheet. (RTRS)
Frontier Group forecast lower-than-expected quarterly revenue and said it would reduce its capacity in the quarter ahead after demand for domestic flights slumped in March. (WSJ)
Logitech International has withdrawn its outlook for the current fiscal year amid changing tariff policies in the U.S. (WSJ)
Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA has canceled several authorizations it had granted U.S.-based producer Chevron to load and export Venezuelan crude in April. (RTRS)
Shein has secured approval from Britain's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) for its planned initial public offering in London. Still awaits green light from Chinese regulator. (RTRS)
BP Plc said debts mounted in the first quarter, a period when upstream production fell and gas-trading performance was also weak. (BBG)
FT article "Renault emerges as winner in Trump tariff chaos. Insulated from industry tumult, smaller French group seeks to move on from turnaround by boosting EV and hybrid sales". (FT)
Stellantis shipments fell 9% in the first quarter of 2025, when the Jeep and Ram-maker extended holiday shutdowns at North American plants in January. (WSJ)
ByteDance's revenue jumped 29% to $155 billion in 2024, after online video phenom TikTok drove a worldwide expansion that helped offset an economic downturn back home in China. (BBG)
Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma warned that AI shouldn’t replace humans but work instead to meet their every need. (BBG)
Country Garden Holdings shares surged after it said it had reached an agreement with creditors holding nearly 30% of its existing offshore bond debt and was close to finalising terms with another group of bank creditors. (RTRS)
Pictet Asset Management is buying back into Samsung Electronics Co., wagering that the chipmaker’s stock can withstand market gyrations better than its rivals. (BBG)