The Overnight News Roundup

Nov 22, 2024

PiQ and Zack Eiseman provide you a consolidated roundup of the overnight news that matters most to markets.

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MACRO:

Trump has floated selecting the financier Kevin Warsh as his Treasury secretary with the understanding that he could later be nominated to lead the Federal Reserve when Jerome Powell’s term as chair ends in 2026. (WSJ)
Donald Trump nominates Pam Bondi for US attorney-general after Matt Gaetz drops out. (FT)
Currency traders are betting that Donald Trump’s policy agenda is about to jumpstart volatility in the $7.5 trillion-a-day foreign exchange market. (BBG)
Republican Governor of Texas Greg Abbott ordered state agencies to cease investing state funds in China and sell at the first available opportunity, citing financial and security risks. (RTRS)
A selloff in Chinese stocks deepened on Friday afternoon, as disappointing tech earnings hurt sentiment already weakened by concerns over Donald Trump’s imminent return. (BBG)
China is willing to engage in “positive dialogue” on trade with the US under a Donald Trump administration, senior trade officials said. (FT)
Some economists have speculated that China could counter Trump tariffs by allowing a depreciation of the renminbi. (FT)
China’s barrage of support measures will likely further boost home sales and facilitate a recovery in the property market next year. (Securities Times)
Foreign investors have dumped Chinese government bonds over the past two months, unwinding a popular and lucrative trade that had been enabled by Beijing’s efforts to support its currency. (FT)
Japan's core inflation in October held above the central bank's 2% target and a key index stripping away the effect of fuel accelerated, keeping pressure on the central bank to raise its still-low interest rates. (RTRS)
Consumer inflation in Tokyo for November likely surpassed the BoJ's 2% price target following a reduction in fuel subsidies and with an increase in food costs, according to a Reuters poll. (RTRS)
Japanese PM Ishiba confirmed on Friday the government would compile a stimulus package of around 39 trillion yen ($253 billion) that will be funded by a supplementary budget it hopes to pass through parliament. (RTRS)
56% of economists expect the BoJ to hike rates again in December and 90% expect rates to be at 0.50% by end-March, according to a Reuters poll, while the median forecast for the terminal rate is at 1.00%. (RTRS)
Japan's factory activity contracted for the fifth straight month in November due to sluggish demand caused by worries over China's economic slowdown and persistent cost pressures, a private-sector survey showed. (RTRS)
Japan’s total power generation fell to the lowest in more than a decade in the year through March, dropping below levels seen during the Covid-19 pandemic, amid shrinking population and better energy efficiency. (BBG)
UK retail sales fell by much more than expected in October, according to official data that added to other signs of a loss of momentum in the economy in the run-up to the first budget of Prime Minister Keir Starmer's new government. (RTRS)
U.K. consumer confidence improved this month in a positive sign for household spending ahead of the vital end-of-year shopping season, according to GfK survey. (WSJ)
Britain’s household energy price cap to rise from January. Move by regulator Ofgem marks third increase in the cap this year. (FT)
French business activity contracted in November at its sharpest pace since early this year, a survey of business executives showed on Friday, as new orders and future expectations hit a four-year low. (RTRS)
Germany's economy grew less than previously estimated in the third quarter, in further bad news for a country set to be the worst performer among the Group of Seven rich democracies this year. (RTRS)
Kiwi hits one-year low, swap rates fall as markets bet on super-dovish RBNZ. (RTRS)
Goldman Sachs expects Brent prices to average around $80 per barrel this year, despite a 2024 deficit and geopolitical uncertainty, citing an anticipated 0.4 mb/d surplus next year. (RTRS)
China’s small, private refiners are paying up for Iranian oil due to reduced flows and few offers. (BBG)
Activity appears to have slumped at Russia’s only construction yard for liquefied natural gas modules, another sign of how Western sanctions are thwarting the country’s ambition to become a top player in this key energy market. (BBG)
North Asia spot liquefied natural gas prices jumped to the highest level this year on increased competition from Europe for the heating and power plant fuel. (BBG)
Gold headed for the biggest weekly gain since October last year as an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict boosted its haven appeal, with traders also assessing prospects for further easing by the Federal Reserve. (BBG)
Bitcoin flirted with a run toward the landmark $100,000 level, buoyed by expectations of friendly US regulations and expanding investor interest courtesy of President-elect Donald Trump’s support for crypto. (BBG)
Digital assets flagged as unregistered securities by the SEC are rallying after the agency’s Chair Gary Gensler, the industry’s bete noire, announced that he plans to step down. (BBG)
Western Australia is on track for a surprise bumper wheat crop, despite low rainfall earlier in the season that had been expected to crimp output. (BBG)
GEOPOLITICAL:
Iran said it will increase the number of centrifuges in its nuclear program in response to a censure by the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, ratcheting up tensions with the West just days after it signaled a willingness to ease them. (BBG)
Nato’s largest defence spender, Poland, has urged EU partners to contribute to increased defences along its borders with Russia and Belarus as a way to show Donald Trump they are committed to their own security. (FT)
Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov said that Russian forces in Ukraine had accelerated their advance. (RTRS)
Microsoft’s president has called on Donald Trump to “push harder” against cyber attacks from Russia, China and Iran amid a wave of state-sponsored hacks targeting US government officials and election campaigns. (FT)
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has accused the US of ramping up tension and provocations, saying the Korean peninsula has never faced such risks of nuclear war as now. (RTRS)

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GEOPOLITICAL:

Iran said it will increase the number of centrifuges in its nuclear program in response to a censure by the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, ratcheting up tensions with the West just days after it signaled a willingness to ease them. (BBG)
Nato’s largest defence spender, Poland, has urged EU partners to contribute to increased defences along its borders with Russia and Belarus as a way to show Donald Trump they are committed to their own security. (FT)
Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov said that Russian forces in Ukraine had accelerated their advance. (RTRS)
Microsoft’s president has called on Donald Trump to “push harder” against cyber attacks from Russia, China and Iran amid a wave of state-sponsored hacks targeting US government officials and election campaigns. (FT)
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has accused the US of ramping up tension and provocations, saying the Korean peninsula has never faced such risks of nuclear war as now. (RTRS)

EQUITIES:

Apple Inc. is racing to develop a more conversational version of its Siri digital assistant, aiming to catch up with OpenAI’s ChatGPT and other voice services. (BBG)
ChatGPT-creator OpenAI has recently considered developing a web browser that would combine with its chatbot and separately discussed or struck deals to power search features. (The Information)
Gap Inc raised its annual sales forecast and said the holiday season was off to a "strong start", sending the Old Navy parent's shares up 15% in extended trade. (RTRS)
Intuit projected second-quarter revenue and profit below market estimates on Thursday, hampered by sluggish demand for its financial management services and a planned change in the timing of its promotions. (RTRS)
Occidental Petroleum Corp. warned that US energy independence is at risk of slipping away if shale output plateaus and begins to decline. (BBG)
Brookfield is opening the door to an improved offer for Grifols, Expansion reports. (Newsquawk)
BP has approved a $7bln gas project in Indonesia to develop the Ubadari field as part of its Tangguh LNG project in Papua. (FT)
Alimentation Couche-Tard chairman said the Co. is not considering a hostile takeover bid for Japan's Seven & i. (Nikkei)
Tokyo Metro Co. is seeking growth through mergers and acquisitions, as well as investments, according to the newly listed company’s president. (BBG)
After barely changing components at all so far this year, Hong Kong’s benchmark stock gauge may be set for more of a shakeup this time around in December. (BBG)
Samsung Electronics faces fresh negotiations with the National Samsung Electronics Labor Union (NSEL) after union members rejected a tentative wage deal, where 57% of votes went against the agreement. New wage negotiations will begin January 16th. (Business Korea)

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