The Overnight News Roundup - June 25

Your Daily Edge: Overnight Headlines for Traders, Analysts, and Market Observers

Jun 25, 2025

PiQ and Zack Eiseman provide you with a consolidated roundup of the overnight news that matters most to markets.

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IRAN:

The ceasefire between Iran and Israel appeared to be holding on Wednesday a day after both countries signalled that their air war had ended. (RTRS)

TRADE:

Fox Business News' Gasparino posted on X, "Team Trump says it’s close to announcing a handful of trade deals, my Wall Street sources with contacts in the White House tell me." He suggests the big ones being made progress on include Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam, whilst noting there has been hiccups with the India deal. (FBN)
Trade negotiations between the US and Mexico are homing in on a possible quota system to reduce tariffs on a certain volume of steel imports, a move seen as assuaging concerns of American manufacturers of the metal. (BBG)
The EU wants China to resolve the current shortage of rare earth magnets before a meeting of their leaders next month, according to the bloc’s top envoy to Beijing. (BBG)
The UK said it would buy at least 12 new US-made F-35A fighter jets capable of carrying nuclear weapons, the latest attempt by Prime Minister Keir Starmer to curry favor with President Donald Trump. (BBG)
Chinese companies are ramping up shipments to Britain to levels not seen in years, a possible sign that the Asian factory powerhouse is finding export markets unimpeded by high tariffs like those Trump has imposed. (BBG)
Japan should focus on enhancing its defense capabilities, not chasing spending goals, the ruling party’s policy chief said, following Trump administration calls for US allies to target higher military expenditure. (BBG)

MACRO:

Foreign direct investment into the U.S. fell sharply in the first quarter to $52.8 billion from a downwardly revised $79.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024, a drop that coincided with high business uncertainty over President Donald Trump's tariff plans. (RTRS)
Fed's Schmid (2025 voter) said the Fed has time to study the effect of rising import tariffs on prices and economic growth before deciding on further rate cuts. (RTRS)
The bond market is bracing for up to $1 trillion of additional U.S. Treasuries supply in the second half of the year, likely focused in the short end, once lawmakers address the looming debt ceiling problem, possibly permanently, top rates strategists said on Tuesday. (RTRS)
Traders are ramping up options wagers that 10-year Treasury yields are poised to sink to the lowest since April, amid dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials and a backdrop of simmering Mideast tensions. (BBG)
The dollar is likely to extend its worst start to a year as foreign investors boost their currency hedges, according to Richard Chambers, global head of repo-trading at Goldman Sachs. (BBG)
Selling the dollar to invest in emerging-market currencies looks increasingly appealing, as greenback volatility drops relative to other traditional funders, according to a Bloomberg analysis. (BBG)
BoJ's Tamura said the Bank may need to raise rates "decisively" to address inflation risks even if uncertainties over U.S. tariffs persist. Tamura said inflation was overshooting his forecasts made in May, but said he had no preset idea on how soon the central bank should raise interest rates. (RTRS)
The June BoJ summary of opinions showed some policymakers called for keeping rates steady for the time being due to uncertainty over the impact of U.S. tariffs, whilst others noted inflation was moving at higher-than-expected levels, with one saying the bank may need to raise rates "decisively". (RTRS)
A leading indicator of Japan's service-sector inflation hit 3.3% in May, keeping alive expectations of further interest rate hikes by the central bank. (RTRS)
Japan is forecast to continue baking over the next two weeks as temperatures remain well above average, likely boosting energy demand and keeping power prices elevated. (BBG)
Some Japanese aluminium buyers have agreed to pay a $108-per-metric-ton premium over the benchmark price for July-September shipments, down 41% from the current quarter, amid weak demand and ample supply, four sources told Reuters. (RTRS)
China's Premier Li Qiang said he was confident China could maintain a "relatively rapid" growth rate as it transitions from a manufacturing-led model to a consumer-driven one, a shift analysts say is key to securing its future. (RTRS)
The war between Israel and Iran has revived Chinese leaders’ interest in the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline that would carry Russian natural gas to China, according to WSJ sources, potentially jump-starting a project that has been stalled for years. (WSJ)
A historic squeeze in the copper market has put pressure on some Chinese smelters, prompting them to ramp up exports in a bid to cover their positions on the London Metal Exchange. (BBG)
Chinese gold miners have been flocking to offshore capital markets to raise funds, fueled by the precious metal’s bullish outlook as prices soar to record highs. (BBG)
Europe’s car market picked up slightly in May, as robust demand for electric and hybrid vehicles helped offset the drag from a patchy economy hit by global trade tensions. (BBG)
The UK’s largest wealth managers are preparing to sell private markets products to their retail customers, as investment groups battle to maintain their relevance with savers and the importance of public markets dwindles. (FT)
Inflation pressures across the Australian economy continued to abate in May, setting the stage for a third cut in interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia next month. (WSJ)
South Korean mom-and-pop investors are ramping up leverage to chase equity gains, driven by optimism surrounding corporate governance reform that’s made the benchmark Kospi stock index Asia’s best performer this year. (BBG)
South Korea’s bid for a developed-market status hit a setback after MSCI Inc. kept the country in the emerging-market category following a review, citing limited foreign exchange reforms and restricted availability of investment instruments. (BBG)
Vietnam is seeking urgent discussions with Russia in an effort to accelerate its nuclear energy program, flagging risks to the country’s goal of having a reactor in operation by the end of the decade. (BBG)

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GEOPOLITICAL:

China vowed to respond to Taiwan’s “technological blockades” after the self-ruled island blacklisted Chinese companies including Huawei Technologies Co., limiting their ability to develop cutting-edge AI. (BBG)
Spanish Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo said his country does not expect any repercussions from its refusal to meet the defence spending target of 5% of GDP to be set by NATO member countries. (RTRS)
The European Union needs to step up its role in global affairs as tensions with U.S. President Donald Trump build up, according to former Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. (CNBC)

EQUITIES:

Tesla's new car sales in Europe fell 27.9% in May from a year earlier even as fully-electric vehicle sales in the region jumped 27.2%, with the U.S. EV maker's revised Model Y yet to show signs of reviving the brand's fortunes. (RTRS)
Staunch opposition from a handful of Republican lawmakers is endangering the tech industry’s drive to attach a ban on state regulation of artificial intelligence to Donald Trump’s tax bill. (BBG)
OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman had a call with Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella on Monday and discussed their future working partnership, Altman said in an NYT podcast. (NYT)
Nvidia’s AI supply chain in the USA moved a step further with a pledge by ASE to build an advanced semiconductor testing plant in the USA specifically for Nvidia, with ASE is in the planning stages for the project now. (MoneyDJ)
Federal investigators said Boeing’s failure to provide adequate training, guidance and oversight for its manufacturing operations was to blame for the door plug that flew off a Boeing 737 MAX plane last year. (WSJ)
FedEx Corp. forecast a worse-than-expected profit for the current quarter in a sign that soft parcel demand and uncertainty over global trade are unlikely to abate in the near term. (BBG)
Hims & Hers Health Inc. won’t back down from selling cheap weight-loss shots, its chief executive officer said one day after Novo Nordisk A/S abruptly ended its distribution partnership. (BBG)
US banking mergers will accelerate over the next year, executives predict, driven by a more favourable approach from regulators, intensifying competition and the need to spend more on technology. (FT)
BlackBerry raised its sales guidance for the fiscal year after logging higher-than-expected revenue in its latest quarter. (WSJ)
Polymarket is finalizing an investment of over $200 million led by Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, valuing the company at about $1 billion. (BBG)
Accounting-software provider Xero will acquire bill-pay platform Melio for an initial US$2.5 billion in a deal that Xero said significantly accelerates its U.S. revenue growth. (WSJ)
Ping An Insurance Group Co., as well as other Chinese insurers, have ramped up investments in the nation’s biggest banks on a bet the dividend yields will outweigh headwinds of narrower margins and earnings pressure. (BBG)
Samsung’s $17 billion semiconductor fab in Taylor, Texas will be completed in the 1st half of 2027 and the company is on a hiring spree, including for sales managers, as it seeks to win orders from big US tech firms. (KED)
British defence engineering company Babcock forecast mid-single digit revenue growth in the medium term, upgrading guidance at a time when the UK is increasing spending on defence and energy security due to geopolitical instability. (RTRS)