The Overnight News Roundup - March 24
PiQ and Zack Eiseman provide you with a consolidated roundup of the overnight news that matters most to markets.
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MACRO:
Risk on after US President Trump is planning a more targeted tariff approach on April 2nd than initially thought, according to sources in both the WSJ and Bloomberg. Articles suggest the reciprocal tariffs will be focused on those with trade surpluses with the US whilst the planned sector-specific tariffs, such as chips, autos, and pharma, will now not be announced at the same time. (WSJ/BBG)
China is exploring limiting exports to mollify Trump's tariffs and may offer to curb the quantity of certain goods exported to the US. (WSJ)
Chinese Premier Li said on Sunday to foreign business leaders in Beijing that China was ready for any “unexpected shocks”, ahead of US President Trump imposing higher tariffs. He also reassured foreign CEOs that China will continue to open up its market and welcome investment. (FT/CNBC)
There has been no discussion about Chinese President Xi coming to the US despite Trump saying Xi would come in the "not too distant future", according to FT sources. (FT)
US Republican Senator Steve Daines met Chinese Premier Li on Sunday and Vice Premier He in Beijing on Saturday, discussing topics such as stopping the flow of fentanyl and expressing hope for high-level talks in the near future. (RTRS)
Treasury Department and IRS officials are predicting a decrease of more than 10% in tax receipts by the April 15 deadline compared with 2024. That would amount to more than $500 billion in lost federal revenue; the IRS collected $5.1 trillion last year. (Washington Post)
Dealmakers are being forced to reassess expectations for a surge in activity this year, as stock market falls and policy uncertainty from the new Trump administration have held back takeovers and IPOs. (FT)
Trump appeared to agree with the oil industry executives last week that state laws around climate had the potential to undermine his energy-dominance agenda and signaled he would consider ways his administration could help the industry. (WSJ)
CFTC data showed speculative traders have turned bearish on the US dollar for the first time since Trump won the election last year. (BBG)
WSJ article, "Investors Who Were All In on U.S. Stocks Are Starting to Look Elsewhere", highlights investors that are now exploring other markets and asset classes due to valuation concerns, economic uncertainty, and opportunities abroad. (WSJ)
International carmakers are rushing to ship vehicles and core components to the US to get ahead of the next round of Trump’s tariffs, which threaten to wreak havoc on automotive supply chains. (FT)
Some European central banking and supervisory officials are questioning whether they can still rely on the Fed to provide dollar funding in times of market stress amid shaken trust in the US government under the Trump administration. (RTRS)
Japan's factory activity fell at the fastest pace in a year in March, dragged by declines in production and new orders in a worrying sign for the economy, the au Jibun Bank survey showed. The service sector, which had been a bright spot in Japan's economy, also lost momentum, with business activity contracting for the first time in five months. (RTRS)
BoJ Governor Ueda said on Monday that the BoJ cannot sell long-term JGB holdings immediately, but later said the bank had not ruled out the possibility of selling its bond holdings. Ueda said in parliament the bank will continue to raise rates if its underlying inflation target is likely to be achieved, despite potential losses on its bond holdings. (RTRS)
BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida echoed Ueda in saying the bank would continue raising rates if its outlooks on the economy and prices are likely to be achieved. (RTRS)
Japan's Finance Minister Kato reiterated that it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner, reflecting fundamentals. Reaffirming that appropriate action will be taken against excessive moves. (RTRS)
Japanese PM Ishiba's cabinet approval rating slid to 35% in the latest Nikkei/TV Tokyo poll, down 5ppts from the February survey to reach the lowest since he took office in October. The disapproval rating rose 7ppts to 59%, its highest yet. (Nikkei)
UK Chancellor Reeves said on Sunday Britain's government will stick to its fiscal rules despite global upheaval, raising the prospect of belt-tightening measures to meet her targets for the public finances at the budget on Wednesday. (RTRS)
UK Chancellor Reeves has promised that Government running costs will be cut by 15% by the end of the decade, citing advances in tech and AI as making the move possible with 10,000 civil service jobs set to be axed (2% of total). (BBC)
UK Chancellor Reeves confirmed that the government is exploring potential adjustments to its digital services tax to avert further tariffs from the US. (CityAM via Newsquawk)
ECB's Cipollone said on Monday that key elements such as energy price declines and the appreciation of the euro strengthen the case for further interest rate cuts. (RTRS)
European beauty groups including L’Oréal have lobbied the EU to remove American cosmetics from the bloc’s list of potential trade retaliation targets, warning that the move could trigger reprisals against one of the region’s biggest sectors. (FT)
Germany’s new fiscal package gives a chance for Italy to revitalise its struggling manufacturing sector, according to the Italian industry minister, who said Italy's northern industrial regions would benefit given they are closely integrated with German manufacturers. (FT)
SocGen Chief Economist in the FT warns the spillover sell off in EGBs outside of Bunds amid the German fiscal package is unwarranted given limited capacity elsewhere for debt-financed spending and Germany's relatively low import content from other euro area members. Said any spillover effect may be offset by higher government borrowing costs. (FT)
This year’s unexpected demand for European stocks is helping to drive the region’s largest wave of block sales this century, with bankers anticipating more deals ahead. (BBG)
Europe’s drive to simplify and streamline financial regulation is making top supervisors nervous about the risk of key safeguards being watered down. (FT)
Canadian PM Carney, who announced an election on Sunday, announced a flurry of measures late on Friday aimed at blunting the pain of US tariffs as well as “nation-building” reforms to boost trade and investment. (BBG)
Australia is set to deliver a budget deficit this week, snapping two rare years in the black as PM Albanese doles out household relief to boost his re-election chances and global risks cloud the economic outlook. (RTRS)
Australia's government said on Sunday that a federal budget this week would include an A$1.8 billion extension to a scheme to reduce energy bills, ahead of what is expected to be a closely-fought general election due by May. (RTRS)
Australia's government said on Saturday it would expand a scheme to help would-be home buyers get on the property ladder. (RTRS)
Turkish President Erdogan’s top political rival was formally arrested on Sunday, in a decision likely to stoke further protests and keep Turkish markets under pressure as tensions mount. (BBG)
Turkey’s capital markets regulator imposed a ban on short-selling across all stocks and relaxed share buyback rules in a bid to prevent further deterioration. (BBG)
The costs of borrowing Turkish lira in the offshore market and insuring the country’s debt against default are holding near the levels they set last week, a sign that traders remain deeply on edge after a wild period for the market. (BBG)
Argentina’s imports are rising rapidly as libertarian President Javier Milei bets on a strong peso and cheap foreign goods to help fight inflation, even as they put pressure on the country’s scarce hard currency reserves. (FT)
The countdown to US President Trump’s next round of tariffs has fueled a frenzy of activity in Asia Pacific’s credit market, with more than a dozen issuers marketing or announcing dollar bonds on Monday. (BBG)
South Korea's industry minister pressed U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick for favourable treatment on tariffs at their second meeting in less than a month. (RTRS)
South Korea PM's impeachment rejected by court. (Yonhap)
Taiwan missed its bond-issuance target for the first time since September 2022 as investors demanded higher yields at an auction Monday due to concern over the policies of Donald Trump’s administration. (BBG)
Singapore’s CPI grew 0.9% year on year in February, marking its slowest growth in four years, the Department of Statistics said in a release on Monday. (CNBC)
Malaysia’s central bank said growth risks loom large in its monetary policy considerations, as brewing global trade disputes and geopolitical tensions threaten exports. (BBG)
India’s economic activity slipped slightly in March as a pickup in manufacturing was offset by slowing services sector demand, a flash survey by HSBC showed. (BBG)
Indian refiners are likely to issue fewer tenders for spot crude in the coming months as volumes from top supplier Russia return to near normal levels. (BBG)
GEOPOLITICAL:
The US is aiming for a Russia/Ukraine ceasefire agreement by April 20th, but recognizes that timeline may slip given the large gaps between the positions of the two sides, according to Bloomberg sources. (BBG)
A U.S. delegation will seek progress toward a Black Sea ceasefire and a broader cessation of violence in the war in Ukraine when it meets for talks with Russian officials on Monday, after discussions with diplomats from Ukraine on Sunday. (RTRS)
The U.S. has taken out key Houthi leadership in Yemen during strikes, along with weapons factories and some drone facilities, White House National Security Adviser Waltz said on Sunday. He also stated that the US is seeking the full dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program in a way that "the entire world can see." (RTRS)
Several senior Trump administration officials are set to travel to Greenland next week as the Arctic island coveted by the US president is in talks to form a new government and holds local elections. (FT)
EQUITIES:
Malaysia plans to tighten regulations on semiconductors as it comes under U.S. pressure to staunch the flow to China of chips crucial to the development of artificial intelligence, particularly those made by Nvidia. (FT)
Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reiterated his prediction that the 2H26 new iPhones (iPhone 18) will be powered by TSMC’s 2nm chips. Noting that TSMC’s 2nm R&D trial yields reached 60–70% three months ago, and they’re now well above that. (@mingchikuo)
Apple said on Monday it will set up a new clean energy fund in China worth 720 million yuan ($99.22 million), coinciding with a Beijing visit of its CEO Tim Cook. (RTRS)
OpenAI and Meta Platforms have held separate discussions with India's Reliance Industries over potential partnerships to expand their AI offerings in the country. (The Information)
South Korean AI semiconductor design startup Pureosa AI has reportedly rejected an $800mln acquisition proposal from Meta, according to Korean press. (MK via @Jukanlosreve)
Nova Scotia becomes next province to scrap electric car rebates for Tesla. (Canadian press)
X is planning the purchase of the last $1.2 billion buyout debt held by banks. (BBG)
BlackRock is taking advantage of recent outperformance in European credit markets to sell some junk bonds there and buy more in the US in its global funds. (BBG)
StubHub plans IPO in new test of Wall Street appetite for tech stocks. (FT)
Warner Bros. Discovery is taking a minority stake in Dubai-based OSN Streaming in a bid to capture a slice of the fast-growing Middle Eastern entertainment market. (BBG)
Ant Group said it’s cut AI training costs by 20% using Chinese chips from Alibaba and Huawei—getting results on par with Nvidia's H800. Ant’s MoE-based models reportedly outperformed Meta in some benchmarks, and beat DeepSeek on Chinese-language tasks. (Newswires)
A Chinese semiconductor equipment maker linked to Huawei, Shenzhen SiCarrier Technologies, has been quietly developing a wide range of machines to replace offerings by ASML and other foreign rivals to help China resolve the most painful supply chain choke point created by U.S. export controls. (Nikkei)
Tencent launched the official version of its T1 reasoning model, stepping up competition in China's increasingly crowded AI sector. (RTRS)
China Sunac told its offshore creditor it would carry out a second round of debt restructuring, a Hong Kong court heard on Monday, which would make it the first in the sector to do so. (RTRS)
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (Sinopec) reported a 16.8% decline in 2024 net profit on Sunday, citing lower crude oil prices and the accelerated development of the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry. (RTRS)
TSMC will start accepting 2nm orders on April 1st for 2nd half production, targeting 50,000 wafers per month by year-end. Apple (A20 chip) is seen as the 1st customer, with AMD, Intel, Broadcom, and Amazon AWS also in line for early 2nm capacity. (CTEE via
)Taiwan's Pegatron opened its first US office in Santa Clara, California, on March 21st. The company is considering a US manufacturing site, though its North American production remains in Mexico. (CTEE via
)LVMH label Loewe said on Monday that Jack McCollough and Lazaro Hernandez were appointed as the creative directors of the Spanish luxury house, effective April 7. (RTRS)
Bayer was ordered by a jury in the U.S. state of Georgia to pay about $2.1 billion to a plaintiff who claimed the company's Roundup weed killer caused his cancer. (RTRS)
Elliott Investment Management has built a stake in Sumitomo Realty & Development and shared views on the Japanese company’s operations, the property developer said. (WSJ)
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