The Overnight News Roundup - May 8

May 08, 2025

PiQ and Zack Eiseman provide you with a consolidated roundup of the overnight news that matters most to markets.

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TRADE:

US President Trump is expected to announce a framework of a trade deal with the UK on Thursday, the first in what the White House hopes is a series of trade agreements since it imposed tariffs against allies and adversaries, according to WSJ sources. (WSJ)
UK PM Starmer will provide an update later on Thursday on trade talks with the United States, a spokesperson for his office said. (RTRS)
Some White House officials are hoping the talks in Switzerland could lead to the beginning of the end of what they have described as a “total trade embargo” between the two countries, according to an official cited by the WSJ. (WSJ)
China's outreach to the US in late April over fentanyl created an opening for trade talks between the two nations, according to WSJ sources, paving the way for a bilateral meeting in Switzerland this weekend. (WSJ)
Trump said he will raise the case of ex-media mogul Jimmy Lai as part of US trade talks with China, according to comments made in a Hugh Hewitt radio interview cited by Bloomberg, a move likely to antagonize Beijing just days before the two sides meet. (BBG)
US Treasury Sec Bessent told a crowd at on the sidelines of the Milken Institute Global Conference that he has been particularly impressed with Indonesia’s trade framework, according to WSJ sources. (WSJ)
EU capitals are urging Brussels to hold fire on any potential retaliation against Donald Trump’s tariffs until the Nato summit in June, arguing that a deal with the US president on Europe’s medium-term security must be the priority. (FT)
Pimco CIO in FT warns investors are underestimating Trump’s resolve to restore the steep tariffs that upended markets last month. Said recession risks were now the highest in years. (FT)

MACRO:

The U.S. Treasury and Commerce departments have formulated plans for a sovereign wealth fund but no final decisions have been made, a White House spokesperson said on Wednesday. (RTRS)
BoJ policymakers were divided in March over how soon the central bank should raise interest rates again as uncertainty stemming from U.S. tariff policies heightened, minutes of their meeting showed. (RTRS)
China's central bank has allowed local lenders to buy more US dollars to fund increased gold import quotas, according to Reuters sources. (RTRS)
Chinese electric vehicles are losing momentum in Europe, but the nation’s automakers are selling more cars than ever in the region by throttling up deliveries of hybrids and combustion engine-powered models, according to Dataforce figures cited by Bloomberg. (BBG)
Industrial production in Germany jumped in March, helped by U.S. firms stockpiling imported goods as they prepared for the Trump administration’s tariffs. (WSJ)
German exports rose 1.1% M/M in March, above the expected 1%, while its imports fell 1.4% M/M against expectations for a rise of 0.4%. (RTRS)
UK Chancellor Reeves is on track to miss both her fiscal rules by tens of billions of pounds in the UK’s autumn budget, according to a prominent economic think tank cited by Bloomberg, leaving her no option but to raise taxes or cut spending. (BBG)
Britain's housing market slowed last month after the end of a temporary tax break on home purchases which had seen buyers rush to complete transactions in previous months, an RICS survey showed. (RTRS)
UK house prices rose for the first time since January as demand proved resilient in the face of higher taxes and a gloomier economic outlook, according to one of Britain’s largest mortgage lenders. (BBG)
South Korea's foreign exchange reserves dropped to the lowest level in five years in April, caused by market stabilising measures to ease the impact of global trade volatility. (RTRS)
Indonesia’s foreign-exchange reserves saw the biggest drop in nearly two years after the central bank ramped up market intervention to cushion the sliding rupiah last month. (BBG)
Taiwan’s central bank governor dismissed the possibility of being labeled a currency manipulator by the US Treasury. (BBG)
The CBRT Governor defended the central bank’s decision to sell tens of billions of dollars of reserves to stabilize the lira in recent weeks, striking a defiant tone in the face of criticism from politicians. (BBG)
The Philippine economy expanded slower than expected in the first quarter, underscoring challenges for policymakers even before the Trump administration’s trade war rocked markets and hurt global sentiment. (BBG)
Foreigners bought about $280 million of Southeast Asian stocks on a net basis for the week ended May 2, the most since September, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. (BBG)

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GEOPOLITICAL:

Oil saw some downside on reports the Trump administration has held talks in recent days with Arab countries to promote a humanitarian aid distribution project in the Gaza Strip, according to diplomats speaking to the Jerusalem Post. (Newsquawk)
Shippers aren’t yet confident enough to return to routes through the Red Sea, despite a tentative cease-fire deal between the U.S. and Yemen’s Houthi militia. (WSJ)

EQUITIES:

Arm Holdings forecast first-quarter sales and profit below Wall Street estimates, as global trade tensions threaten revenue from its chip architecture used across the smartphone and data center industries. Shares down 11% in after hours. (RTRS)
The European Commission is facing pressure from several member states to make social media platforms shoulder the burden of fighting online payments scams. (FT)
Applovin reported higher profit and sales in the first quarter as its advertising business continued to grow rapidly, sending its shares sharply higher in after-hours trading. (WSJ)
Apple supplier Skyworks Solutions forecast third-quarter revenue and profit above Wall Street estimates, signaling resilient demand for its analog chips despite ongoing trade tensions. (RTRS)
Zillow Group swung to a profit for the first time since the second quarter of 2022. (WSJ)
Carvana Co. doubled its profits in the first quarter with record vehicle volume and a substantial gain in loan sales. On a call with analysts, CEO said the uptick in vehicle shopping related to tariffs likely helped the company. (BBG)
Infineon Technologies cut its annual guidance for revenue and profitability, saying it expects tariff wars and currency headwinds to weigh on its top line. (WSJ)
Rheinmetall confirmed its guidance for the year, after posting double-digit sales growth driven by increases to defense spending across Europe. (WSJ)
Siemens Energy said it expects a limited direct impact from U.S. tariffs on its fiscal second half, and reported a surge in profit for the last quarter. (WSJ)
Deutsche Bank AG has taken steps to meaningfully step up its exposure to the defense industry. (BBG)
Budweiser brewer Anheuser-Busch InBev’s first-quarter net profit soared ahead of market expectations as lower costs helped offset a decline in sales volumes. (WSJ)
A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S lowered its forecast for the global transport market rattled by Donald Trump’s trade war. (BBG)
Next Plc raised its profit guidance for the second time this year as stronger-than-expected sales in the UK defied the weak consumer sentiment that’s affecting rivals. (BBG)
Centrica Plc will increase its dividends for the year, boosting returns to shareholders as it monitors the impact the trade war will have on the business. (BBG)
China defense stocks surge as India-Pakistan tensions escalate. (CNBC)
Toyota Motor projected lower annual profit after reporting a drop in fourth-quarter earnings, expecting U.S. tariffs and higher material costs to cut into its bottom line. (WSJ)