The Overnight/Weekend News Roundup

PiQ and Zack Eiseman provide you with a consolidated roundup of the overnight news that matters most to markets.

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MACRO:

• The U.S. Treasury Department may need to take "extraordinary measures" by as early as Jan. 14th to prevent the US from defaulting on its debt, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told lawmakers in a letter on Friday. (RTRS)

• U.S. President Biden directed that Jan. 9th will be a national day of mourning throughout the United States for former President Jimmy Carter. (RTRS)

• President-elect Donald Trump on Saturday sided with Elon Musk in a public dispute over the use of the H-1B visa, saying he fully backs the program for foreign tech workers opposed by some of his supporters. (RTRS)

• Credit card lenders wrote off $46bn in seriously delinquent loan balances in the first nine months of 2024, up 50% from the same period in the year prior and the highest level in 14 years, according to industry data collated by BankRegData. (FT)

• Investors remain worried that a tough environment for US bonds could get even worse if President-elect Donald Trump pursues inflationary policies such as new tariffs. Many are debating whether hiding out in short-term T-bills could again be the smarter play. (WSJ)

• Many in Mexico are assuming Trump is bluffing on tariffs. Business leaders in Mexico say the incoming U.S. administration will enhance the appeal of their factories as an alternative to plants in China. (NYT)

• Japan's factory activity shrank at a slower pace in December as declines in production and new orders eased, the final au Jibun survey showed on Monday, edging closer to stabilisation after recent falls. (RTRS)

• China encourages local governments with the means to provide cash handouts to struggling citizens. (BBG)

• China's factory activity likely expanded for a third straight month in December, according to a Reuters economist survey ahead of the NBS figures on Tuesday and the Caixin figures on Thursday. (RTRS)

• While China can inflict pain on the U.S. with the economic tools at its disposal, it is more likely to wield them sparingly, according to analysts. Instead, analysts say Beijing could use the measures to force talks to negotiate a truce with Donald Trump. (WSJ)

• China will reduce import tariffs on ethane and certain recycled copper and aluminium raw materials from next year, the government said on Saturday. (RTRS)

• China’s ambitious campaign to revive its flagging stock market has made the yuan an unintended casualty, with record dividend payouts leading to outflows. (BBG)

• Chinese investors’ appetite for stock-focused mutual funds waned in December as the autumn equity rally sputtered and bonds once again gained attraction. (BBG)

• China’s central government is trying to curb a spate of detentions by local authorities of business executives that is fuelling anxiety among entrepreneurs and risks undercutting efforts to boost economic growth. (FT)

• A record 3.4mln young Chinese flocked to the civil service exam this year, lured by the prospect of lifetime job security and perks including subsidised housing as an economic slowdown batters the private sector and youth unemployment remains high. (RTRS)

• China's finance ministry said that the proportion of new energy vehicles procured each year as government vehicles should not be less than 30% in total and 100% in urban areas to "to support and promote" their use. (RTRS)

• Sales and exports of new energy vehicles in China are expected to increase by 30% to about 16.5mln units next year, Chinese auto association EV100 said in local media on Monday. (RTRS)

• Macau is hosting a record amount of bond listings as the world’s top gambling hub boosts efforts to diversify its economy and establish itself as an alternative financing hub for Chinese firms. (BBG)

• ECB's Holzmann (hawk) said on Saturday the next interest rate cut by the ECB could be longer in coming after a recent uptick in inflation, citing risks to the outlook from higher energy prices and a weaker Euro. (Kurier)

• Spain's EU-harmonised 12-month inflation rate rose by 2.8% in December, from 2.4% in the period through November, above the 2.6% expected by analystss. Core inflation was 2.6% year-on-year, up from 2.4%.

• French Finance Minister Lombard said the delayed 2025 budget bill will target a deficit of "slightly above 5%" (the prior government's target) in order to protect growth, down from the 6% projected for 2024. (La Tribune Dimanche)

• French stocks are on course to deliver their weakest annual performance since the depths of the Eurozone crisis, as investor worries over tariffs and political turmoil combine with lacklustre demand for luxury goods. (FT)

• The Italian Senate on Saturday passed the government's deficit-cutting 2025 budget. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's third budget aims to lower next year's fiscal deficit to 3.3% of GDP from a targeted 3.8% in 2024, while cutting taxes for low and medium income brackets. (RTRS)

• Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico urged the European Commission to address the looming halt of Russian gas transit through Ukraine, saying the economic impact on the EU will far outweigh the effect on Russia. (BBG)

• Poland is prepared to step up electricity exports to Ukraine if Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico follows through on his threat to cut off back-up power supplies to the war-torn country. (BBG)

• Russia’s Gazprom will halt natural gas supplies to Moldova starting on Jan. 1 due to a debt impasse amid a state of emergency in the Eastern European nation’s energy sector. (BBG)

• Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday that there would be more interest rate cuts in 2025 after the central bank cut its key rate by 250 basis points to 47.5% last week. (RTRS)

• South Korea's acting President Choi Sang-mok on Monday ordered an emergency safety inspection of the country's entire airline operation system as investigators worked to identify victims and find out what caused the country's deadliest air disaster. (RTRS)

• South Korea approved a plan to build the world’s largest semiconductor cluster in Yongin, making it home to six large chip fabs, three power plants, and over 60 equipment, materials and parts suppliers. (Korea Herald)

• A gauge of the Indian rupee’s volatility jumped to its highest level in over a year, fueling speculation that the nation’s central bank may be easing its tight grip on the currency amid a strong dollar. (BBG)

• Taiwan Finance Minister Chuang Tsui-yun urged lawmakers to renew a day-trading tax cut by Dec. 31 at the latest, or risk complicating revenue collection and hurting market sentiment. (BBG)

• Incumbent president Zoran Milanovic won the most votes in the first round of Croatia's presidential election on Sunday but fell just short of a majority and will have to go to a second round. (RTRS)

• Russia's exports of LNG increased by 3% in 2024 to exceed 32mln metric tons with around a half going to Europe, LSEG preliminary data showed on Saturday. (RTRS)

• A major polar vortex has the potential to bring extremely cold temperatures to much of the lower 48 states in Jan 9-11th window, according to meteorologists. Europe is also predicted to experience a decent cold spell during the second week of January. (TradeTheNews)

GEOPOLITICAL:

• President-elect Donald Trump has urged the U.S. Supreme Court to pause implementation of a law that would ban popular social media app TikTok or force its sale. (RTRS)

• The Chinese-linked Salt Typhoon cyberespionage operation targeted AT&T and Verizon's systems, but the wireless carriers' U.S. networks are now secure, the companies said on Saturday. (RTRS)

• North Korean leader Kim Jong Un held a key policy-setting meeting of the country's ruling party last week, where officials decided that North Korea would launch the "toughest" strategy to counteract the US for its security and national interests, without elaborating. (RTRS)

• Russian smugglers are charging huge fees to import luxury cars from Europe, as EU sanctions in response to Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine hit the country’s wealthy. (FT)

• Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said on Sunday that a passenger plane that crashed last week, killing 38 people, had been damaged by accidental shooting from the ground in Russia, adding that some in Russia had lied about the cause of the disaster. (RTRS)

• Russia's President Vladimir Putin apologised to the president of neighbouring Azerbaijan over the downing of a commercial airliner in Russian airspace, but stopped short of saying Russia was responsible. (BBC)

EQUITIES:

• Nvidia plans to launch its latest generation of compact computers for humanoid robots, called Jetson Thor, in the 1st half of 2025 as it seeks growth via robotics next year. (FT)

• Shipments of Nvidia's GB200 NVL are on track to meet the late 2024 schedule, even though production volumes have initially been lower due to bottlenecks, according to a report by Mizuho. (DigiTimes)

• The FDIC has reached a deal with Vanguard that will strengthen the rules under which the investment management giant can take big stakes in large U.S. financial institutions. (RTRS)

• Take-Two's Grand Theft Auto VI is set to be the biggest entertainment launch of 2025, generating a projected $3bn in its first year, making it a bright spot in an otherwise lacklustre video game market. (FT)

• TSMC will raise prices 5-10% for advanced processes like 3nm/5nm, and 15%-20% for CoWoS packaging next year due to AI demand, while cutting mature process prices by about 5%, according to sources. (Liberty Times Net)

• The quarterly investors conference of TSMC is scheduled for January 16, 2025. TSMC is expected by analysts to reveal industry-beating guidance for next year's operations at the upcoming investors meeting. (DigiTimes)

• Taiwanese network communication manufacturers report no immediate impact from the US-China trade war on orders but remain optimistic about long-term opportunities driven by geopolitical shifts. (DigiTimes)

• Huawei cut the prices of a variety of high-end devices, including mobile phones, by up to 3,000 yuan ($411) over the weekend on one of China's leading e-commerce platforms. (RTRS)

• Shares of South Korean budget carrier Jeju Air hit their lowest on record on Monday, after the deadliest air crash in the country killed 179 people. (RTRS)

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That's all for today's digest. Happy trading, and keep it tight!

Team PiQ